格兰姆•马瑟

世界自由贸易区协会主席

时间:05-19 来源:自贸区论坛官网 点击: 960次

世界自由贸易区协会主席 格兰姆•马瑟(graham mather)

【亚太日报 周玲娜】We meet when the global economy is still recovering from the financial crash. Seven years later the search for sustainable growth preoccupies governments around the world.

今天,在全球经济仍尚处于金融危机后的复苏之时,我们在此相聚。七年过去,世界各国政府更专注于寻求可持续的发展之道。
Where better than Shenzhen to examine the important next steps in building a sustainable growth path and to examine the implementation of structural reforms which will help China to develop advanced currency and capital markets building upon the already phenomenal achievements of her free trade zones?
有哪里会比深圳更好,能检验接下来建立一条可持续发展道路的重要步骤,同时亦检验结构性改革的实施情况?中国的自贸区建设已取得非凡成就,以此为基础,这些结构化改革能帮助中国发展更为先进的货币及资本市场。
For academic experts agree that the study of Shenzhen offers many insights into an array of processes and outcomes that have seen its dazzling economic performance.
学界专家普遍认同,通过对深圳的研究,可以洞悉一系列目前已展现耀眼经济表现的过程及成果。
As we look forward to the next stages in Shenzhen’s development through the free trade zone we should also look back at the lessons to be learnt. As one academic study has noted, the advances in Shenzhen came from a bold strategy tempered by cautious, tactical steps.
在通过自贸区展望深圳未来发展的同时,我们也应当回顾那些经验和教训。正如一项研究指出,深圳的发展源于大胆,同时也具有谨慎而有策略步骤的战略。
“Although an unprecedented move to introduce market practice and foreign investment to post reform China, it was implemented with the state’s unfettered ability to control the experiment in a confined environment and restrict any negative effects. This coupling of audacity and caution made it possible to replicate success and reduce risks” said the authors Xiang Ming Chen and Tomas Demedici.
研究作者陈向明和托马斯·德·美第奇(Tomas De'Medici)这样说:“尽管一项史无前例的举措为改革后的中国引入了市场运作和外国投资,但伴随实施的是国家对在有限环境中的试验不受约束的控制力,以限制任何负面的效应。这种大胆与审慎的结合使复制成功和减少风险成为可能。”
As China’s reforming leader Deng Xiaoping said “the open policy will not be changed; if changed, it will only become more open”. This is a good model for the current phase of development of China’s free trade zones, beginning with the China Shanghai pilot free trade zone and its expansion, and continuing with the three new zones including Shenzhen Qianhai.
中国改革领导人邓小平曾说,“开放政策不会变;即使改变,也只会变得更加开放。”这为现阶段中国自贸区的发展提供了典范。从上海自由贸易试验区及其延伸开始,接踵而至的是包括深圳前海在内的三个新自贸区的建立。
The process by which China’s free trade zones are established, the use of the technique of the negative list, and the careful evaluation of results provide a world class model for the benefits of the free trade zone concept.
中国自贸区的建立过程、负面清单的使用技术,以及对结果的谨慎评估,为自贸区概念带来的各种利益提供了一个世界级的范例。
In China the technique is being used to its full theoretical extent. Zones in many other parts of the world have been established and are thriving as parts of an economic development and foreign direct investment initiative.
在中国,这项技术被运用到了理论范围内的最大程度。自贸区在世界上的许多其他地区已被建立起来,作为经济发展和海外直接投资举措的组成部分正蓬勃发展。
Frequently however, they are static: in the sense that once they are established with a particular package of attributes and benefits these remain broadly unchanged. To a limited degree there is an international “compare and contrast” by which countries and zones learn from each other and new generations of zones learn from some of these strengths and weaknesses of their comparators around the world.
然而,通常他们都是静态的:就此意义而言,自贸区一旦成立,随之建立的一系列特定属性和优势即大致维持不变。在有限程度上,会有一个国际“比较和对照”,通过国家和自贸区间互相学习,使新成立的自贸区借鉴世界其他自贸片区的优劣。
This approach has yielded massive economic benefits for many countries. Zones help economies to grow. This applies in many continents and in many circumstances. One of the encouraging aspects of the establishment of a World Free Zone Organisation in Dubai is that it hopes to build systematic learning systems through which free zones can benefit from a knowledge hub, an observatory, an economic outlook, an open university, a network and accredited certifications. These if successful will mark a profound development in this dynamic zone learning process globally, which is to be welcomed.
这种方式已为许多国家带来巨大经济效应。自贸区帮助经济发展——这在各大洲,以及许多环境下都适用。世界自由区组织在迪拜成立,其鼓舞人心的方面之一,是有望能建立系统的学习体系,让自贸区从一个知识中心、观察站、经济前景、公开大学、交流网络和认证证书中受益。如能成功建立,将标志着全球动态自贸区学习进程的深远发展,这会受到欢迎。
In China however the development of zones has been taken a step further to make explicit the incremental and experimental pilot nature of its zone program. When the pilot zone was established in Shanghai it was clear that its mission to liberalise trade, ease rules for investment, streamline its administration and restructure its financial system in line with international standards was a matter of national interest for China.
然而在中国,自贸区的发展已进一步明确了自贸区项目的增长和试验特质。自贸试验区在上海成立之时,明确的一点是其贸易自由化、简化投资规则、合理行政及根据国际标准调整金融系统是关系到中国的国家利益的事情。
As Prime Minister Li-Keqiang reminded officials in Shanghai “the scope of the free trade zone is limited, but the potential for reform is limitless”.
正如李克强总理提醒上海官员时所说:“自贸区的范围是有限的,但改革的潜力无限。”
So it is highly encouraging that recent academic research suggests that the very important financial innovation aspect of the Shanghai pilot zone has proved positive so far.
因此令人鼓舞的是,近来的学术研究显示,截至目前,上海自贸试验区在相当重要的金融创新方面表现积极。
The Canadian expert Professor John Whalley and colleagues have examined what has happened to China’s capital flows since the start of the Shanghai pilot zone. Before it opened the inflow and outflow volumes were about $300400 billion per quarter. From the fourth quarter of 2013 overall capital outflows increased gradually to $620 billion with capital inflows a more rapid increase from $402 billion to $636 billion more than a 50% increase in three quarters.
加拿大西安大略大学国际经济关系研究中心主任 John Whalley约翰·沃雷教授和他的同事们已研究过上海试验区成立后中国的资本流动情况。自贸区成立前,资本的流入和流出量大约是每季度3000亿至4000亿美元。而从2013年第四季度开始,资本流出量逐渐增长到6200亿美元。而资本流入量的增长更为惊人,从4020亿美元猛增至6360亿美元,三个季度的增幅超过50%。
Secondly the experts compared the price spread between CNY and CNH-the onshore and offshore exchange rate of the RMB. The academics conclude that generally speaking the price spread of CNY and CNH is now closer. Before the zone opened the price had reached 300 basis points since it opened the price spread seldom reached 100 basis points.
其次,专家们还比较了人民币在岸和离岸汇率间的差价。学者们得出结论,总体来说,人民币在岸汇率和离岸汇率的差价正在减小。上海自贸区成立前,两者差价达300个基点。而自贸区成立后,差价已鲜少达到100个基点。
Let me quote from the authors’ conclusions. They say that “all these tests given consistent results that the impact of capital controls in China is less since the Shanghai zone was established. With the further successful practice of the zone and more pilot policies replicated in China as a whole, the impacts of China’s capital controls will diminish further.”
沃雷教授和他同仁们的在研究结论中这样说:“所有这些测试都说明自上海自贸区成立以来,中国对资本管制的影响正在弱化。随着上海自贸区实践的进一步成功,更多试验政策将被复制到全国,中国资本管制的影响将进一步降低。”
Looking forward Professor Walley and his colleagues consider “that it is likely that China will choose a floating exchange rate, free capital account and independent monetary policy, just as other developed economies do and the policy changes stemming from the Shanghai zone will have played a key role.”
展望未来,沃雷教授和他的同事们认为:“中国可能会像其他发达国家一样实行浮动汇率、自由资本账户和独立的货币政策。而源于上海自贸试验区的一些政策变化将对改革发挥关键作用。”
I believe it is highly important to build on these achievements and use our discussions in the Forum to calibrate the next steps in financial services liberalisationfacilitating new developments in financial services provision while maintaining suitable prudential safeguards.
我认为,基于这些成就,同时利用本次论坛上的讨论,使下一步金融服务标准化,新的金融服务条款便利化,同时继续适当而谨慎的防护措施,这点至关重要。
One of the most important aspects of this work is to prepare for the emergence of the RMB as a global reserve currency. I see this happening in the relatively near future. The fact that in January 2015 the RMB broke into the top five global payment currencies by value is a really encouraging development and a clear sign of the dramatic rise in the use of the currency.
这项工作最重要的方面之一,是为人民币成为全球性储备货币做好准备。我认为这将发生在不久的将来。事实上,在2015年1月,按付款价值计算人民币已成为全球五大支付货币之一。这真是一项振奋人心的发展,同时也是人民币使用量急剧上升的一个清晰的信号。
Of course, eventually everyone hopes to see full convertibility under capital account and the end of the spilt between onshore and offshore markets.
当然,每个人最终都希望见到资本账的完全自由兑换以及在岸和离岸市场分割的终结。
It seems to me that this process will be begin in Asia and that we will see China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea at the head of the list with the Eurozone and UK thereafter and I see no blockage to the eventual true globalisation of the currency building on this base.
在我,这个过程将从亚洲开始。中国内地、香港、台湾、新加坡和韩国将率先开始,欧元区和英国会紧随其后。我认为在此基础上,人民币最终实现真正的全球化并没有什么阻碍。
In my opinion it is important to link the liberalisation of financial services closely to the development of the main economy. The United States and Europe have learned painfully since the financial crash that an unbalanced, inadequately- regulated financial services sector does little to help the real economy and can indeed pose a life-threatening challenge to it.
我认为,将金融服务自由化和主流经济的发展紧密连接十分重要。美国和英国已从金融危机中得到了惨痛的教训——不平衡、监管不足的金融服务业不仅无助于实体经济,还会为其带来致命的挑战。
I notice that when Prime Minister Li Keqiang visited Shanghai he encouraged those in the zone to attract multinational companies to move their research and development, investment and sales departments to Shanghai. His message is a wise one. The close integration of banking and insurance services with trade and business development is of profound importance.
我注意到李克强总理到访上海时曾鼓励自贸区吸引跨国公司将研发、投资和销售部门迁移至上海。他传达的信息是非常明智的。银行和保险服务业与商贸发展紧密结合意义深远。
In the same way it is wise to examine post-crisis understanding of best practice in prudential regulation. Here China has a well-established and commendable approach to the use of reserve ratios to ensure that the banking sector does not become excessively leveraged and maintains adequate capital buffers. I would not expect to see this approach change as the sector liberalises.
同理,检验后危机时代审慎监管的最佳做法是明智的。中国有完善和值得称道的方法来通过调整准备金率,确保银行业不会变得过度杠杆化,同时维护足够的资本缓冲。我不希望看到这种方法随着行业放开而改变。
By contrast the gradual opening up of greater flexibility in foreign ownership of financial services institutions within the zones seems a natural development, against the background of this stable regulatory regime.
相比,在当今监管制度稳定的背景下,自贸区内外资金融服务机构所呈现的越来越大的灵活性似乎是一种自然的发展趋势。
Here there are global opportunities at a high policy level-to strengthen the compatibility of financial services regulatory regimes in the context of the global market. It would seem desirable to me, for example, for TTIP to have a financial services dimension, something which the United States is unfortunately not yet prepared to see. In bodies like IOSCO there are very encouraging developments where regulators are looking at the way in which they improve their ability to handle cross border activity.
在全球市场背景下,各国监管机构的协作在高层政策方面有机会逐步加强。而这正是我们所希望的。比如说,在跨太平洋贸易与投资伙伴的金融服务层面,有些事情美国尚未做好准备。类似国际证监会组织这样的机构也有着令人鼓舞的进步,如他们提高了处理跨境活动的能力。
And in Europe there is an encouraging development I would like to share with you-the proposal to create a Capital Markets Union which will help to shift from an excessive reliance on bank finance to a wider array of sources of investment capital for business.
我愿与大家分享欧洲一项鼓舞人心的发展:建立资本市场联盟的提议将有助于转变对银行融资的过度依赖,实现多渠道融资。
Harnessing savings effectively whether through life insurance, pension funds, hedge funds and private equity has much to offer. I am sure that China’s experts will pay close attention to this promising opportunity to make effective use of savings and to capture long term capital for productive use.
这样,来自人寿保险、退休基金、对冲基金和私人股本的存款都可以被有效利用。 我相信中国的专家们也一定会密切关注这些提高存款利用率的机遇,以使长期资本的使用更具效率。
Maximising China’s role in these global financial development discussions is of profound importance and it is understandable that there is some impatience in China with the pace of development in some international bodies.
使中国在全球金融发展中的作用最大化意义深远,这也是为什么随着一些国际组织的发展步伐,中国有一些迫不及待。
To ensure that international financial flows are opened as speedily as possible and international regulatory norms are aligned as closely as possible is of fundamental importance to global economic growth.
保证国际资金流快速畅通以及国际监管准则尽量接近对全球经济发展具有根本性意义。
In this context the development of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is a welcome development in which the United Kingdom intends to play a full part, welcoming as it does cooperation on the development of infrastructure through investment, technology and expertise.
在此背景下,亚投行的发展受到欢迎,英国愿全面参与。亚投行让投资、技术和专业知识在基础设施建设方面相互协作。
Harnessing the world’s talent to the renewal and development of essential infrastructure must be right at the heart of the world’s growth agenda and The Bank will be able to apply capital at the same time as some of the measures in broadening capital supply which I mentioned earlier, especially in the insurance sector, are developed. The new Bank will also be able to draw upon the prudent and cautious approaches which have characterised China’s financial liberalisation.
利用全球人才去更新和发展必要的基础设施是当今世界发展议程的题中之义。亚投行有能力在利用资本的同时扩大融资渠道,特别是在保险领域。亚投行同样有能力奉行中国在金融自由化进程中一贯审慎的做法。
Ladies and gentlemen
女士们先生们
As we can see the concept of the free trade zone has, having proved itself globally, now become on the critical path to the next stages of China’s economic liberalisation and reform. It is right that this bold initiative be accompanied by cautious implementation and evaluation.
我们可以看到,自贸区的概念已经在全球范围内证明了自己,现在它正推动着中国经济自由化和改革在关键道路上更进一步。这一创举的实现与谨慎的实施和评估密不可分。
I am absolutely confident that the foundations which are being laid in the new generation of China’s free trade zones will yield valuable and enduring changes which will make a major contribution to the opening up of her capital markets, the internationalisation of the RMB; and her further advances as a major and powerful player in the world economy and in its institutions.
我绝对有信心在此基础上新诞生的一批自贸区将为中国带来极富价值与持续的改变,这些改变对于中国开放资本市场和人民币的国际化有很大的促进作用。与此同时,她未来的发展将使中国在世界经济体系内发挥举足轻重的作用。
编辑:刘翠芳

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